March 01, 2007 (Computerworld) -- It seems like every month a new technology emerges with the potential to change everything. Technology writers and analysts get hyperexcited. Everyone starts patting one another on the back and hugging. And two years later, we're still talking about the promise of that technology, with little to show in the here and now.
That's why as we began to look at core technologies that may have the greatest effect on the world of computing over the next 12 months, we paid special attention to how soon these advances will be available to everyday users, either at the enterprise or the personal level. The result is the following list of five emerging technologies with groundbreaking potential -- this year as well as in the future.
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Five Hot Technologies for 2007
1. Ruby on Rails
Faster, easier Web development
2. NAND drives
Bye-bye, HDD?
3. Ultra-Wideband
200x personal-area networking
4. Hosted hardware
Supercomputing for the masses
5. Advanced CPU architectures
Penryn, Fusion and more
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1. Ruby on Rails: Faster, easier Web development
Chances are you've heard the term Ruby on Rails -- probably from someone on your Web development team lobbying heavily to use it for some or all of your company's Web development.
Ruby on Rails (also known as RoR and Rails) is a Web application framework written in Ruby, an object-oriented programming language known for its clean syntax. Released in 2004, RoR is an open-source project that originally served as the foundation of a project management tool designed by Web development company 37signals LLC. It is easily ported among Linux, Windows and Macintosh environments, and it can have a dramatic impact on the speed at which a Web development team is able to build and maintain enterprise Web sites and applications.
Equal parts design philosophy and development environment, Rails offers developers a few key code-level advantages when constructing database-backed Web applications. One of the central tenets emphasizes using less code for application development by avoiding redundancy and following Rails conventions. This means increased performance and, ideally, decreased development times.
For instance, the Ruby on Rails Web site offers tutorials for creating a Web-based search engine for Flickr in five minutes or building a complete weblog in 15 minutes. RoR also allows for easy utilization of Asynchronous JavaScript and XML (AJAX) technologies.
Thanks to these efficiencies and the open-source nature of the Web development framework, Ruby on Rails is experiencing a tremendous surge in popularity. Notable apps and sites built on Rails include 37signals' own Basecamp project management tool, the Jobster job search site and Revolution Health, an interactive health information site headed by former AOL LLC CEO Steve Case. And Apple has announced that Mac OS X 10.5 (code-named "Leopard") will ship with Rails bundled into the operating system when it is released this spring.
For more details on Ruby on Rails, see the official Ruby on Rails Web site or its Wikipedia entry
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Sunday, February 25, 2007
Continue
Hall, who hasn't used a Windows-based computer in some six or seven years, said that with more Linux applications available, the time may be right for Dell to release such hardware. "Today, with several good Linux desktop distributions like Ubuntu, Red Hat and Novell SUSE, [the tide is] turning -- particularly with people who are a little dissatisfied with Vista and its minimum hardware requirements. I think this would be a good time to revisit this."
Eric S. Raymond, president of The Open Source Initiative and author of The Cathedral and The Bazaar, said in an e-mail that the postings from users on the Dell site is "a sign [that] users are demanding genuine choices. Microsoft's line is doubtless going to be that what we've seen is a tiny band of zealots stuffing the IdeaStorm ballot box," Raymond wrote.
"In truth, I actually considered that possibility myself. But I dismissed it on evidence" that included posts from other users who complained about real-world concerns such as pop-ups and dealing with support personnel in foreign Dell tech-support call centers, he wrote.
"The second-order implications are even more interesting, because I think there's no way that Michael Dell didn't see this coming," Raymond wrote. "His company has been quietly selling Linux machines to business customers for several years -- which means he's got more than enough real-world market data to see where the trends are going. Mr. Dell had to have a pretty strong suspicion that Linux preinstalls were going to show up as a top user demand before the fact -- and yet, he let IdeaStorm happen anyway. This tells me he isn't nearly as nervous about angering Microsoft as he used to be. Something in the balance of power between the world's largest PC vendor and the crew in Redmond has shifted, and not in Redmond's favor. You can bet money on that."
Running Linux on Dell laptops could have another lure, Raymond wrote. "I think one significant problem Dell and Microsoft are facing is just that Vista is too resource-hungry and bloated to run well on sub-$500 machines, which are the highest-volume market segment now. Dell may be arranging itself some maneuvering room to preinstall an [operating system] that won't make its low-end hardware look like crap."
Stephen O'Grady, an analyst at RedMonk in Bath, Maine, said the move could work if Dell sets its expectations appropriately for Linux-equipped laptops. "But people expecting Linux [on laptops] to have the same impact as in the server market [where the operating system is widely used in corporate IT] would be a stretch."
Eric S. Raymond, president of The Open Source Initiative and author of The Cathedral and The Bazaar, said in an e-mail that the postings from users on the Dell site is "a sign [that] users are demanding genuine choices. Microsoft's line is doubtless going to be that what we've seen is a tiny band of zealots stuffing the IdeaStorm ballot box," Raymond wrote.
"In truth, I actually considered that possibility myself. But I dismissed it on evidence" that included posts from other users who complained about real-world concerns such as pop-ups and dealing with support personnel in foreign Dell tech-support call centers, he wrote.
"The second-order implications are even more interesting, because I think there's no way that Michael Dell didn't see this coming," Raymond wrote. "His company has been quietly selling Linux machines to business customers for several years -- which means he's got more than enough real-world market data to see where the trends are going. Mr. Dell had to have a pretty strong suspicion that Linux preinstalls were going to show up as a top user demand before the fact -- and yet, he let IdeaStorm happen anyway. This tells me he isn't nearly as nervous about angering Microsoft as he used to be. Something in the balance of power between the world's largest PC vendor and the crew in Redmond has shifted, and not in Redmond's favor. You can bet money on that."
Running Linux on Dell laptops could have another lure, Raymond wrote. "I think one significant problem Dell and Microsoft are facing is just that Vista is too resource-hungry and bloated to run well on sub-$500 machines, which are the highest-volume market segment now. Dell may be arranging itself some maneuvering room to preinstall an [operating system] that won't make its low-end hardware look like crap."
Stephen O'Grady, an analyst at RedMonk in Bath, Maine, said the move could work if Dell sets its expectations appropriately for Linux-equipped laptops. "But people expecting Linux [on laptops] to have the same impact as in the server market [where the operating system is widely used in corporate IT] would be a stretch."
Hey dude, you're getting Linux on that Dell
After collecting some 1,800 new product and service ideas from IT users and customers using an online "suggestion box," Dell Inc. has announced that it's taking the user suggestions seriously and will soon debut and sell a new line of certified, user-ready Linux-loaded desktop and laptop computers.
The Dell IdeaStorm Web site, where customers and other IT enthusiasts can offer recommendations about future Dell products and configurations that they'd want to buy, was started on Feb. 16 by CEO Michael Dell, who is looking for ways to re-energize the company's sales and financial performance after several disappointing quarters.
One post that got a lot of interest was the idea that Dell bring back a reasonably priced laptop computer that runs Linux.
Just a week after debuting the IdeaStorm site, the company said Friday night that the Linux-loaded desktops and laptops will be the first user-generated suggestions that it will follow.
"It's exciting to see the IdeaStorm community's interest in open-source solutions like Linux and OpenOffice," the company said in a post on the Web site. "Your feedback has been all about flexibility and we have seen a consistent request to provide platforms that allow people to install their operating system of choice. We are listening, and as a result, we are working with Novell to certify our corporate client products for Linux, including our OptiPlex desktops, Latitude notebooks and Dell Precision workstations. This is another step towards ensuring that our customers have a good experience with Linux on our systems."
The company said that other Linux distributions were also suggested by users, and that Dell will look into possible certifications with other Linux brands across its product lines.
And while earlier Linux-based machines didn't exactly set the company's sales charts on fire, several IT analysts and Linux luminaries said conditions are better for Dell to try again.
"I think it would be very worthwhile for Dell," said Jon "Maddog" Hall, the executive director of Linux International, an open-source advocacy group in Amherst, N.H. "It's always better when a hardware manufacturer works with software vendors" to integrate their products for users. "That's what makes a good combination. That's why Apple is so good at what they do."
The Dell IdeaStorm Web site, where customers and other IT enthusiasts can offer recommendations about future Dell products and configurations that they'd want to buy, was started on Feb. 16 by CEO Michael Dell, who is looking for ways to re-energize the company's sales and financial performance after several disappointing quarters.
One post that got a lot of interest was the idea that Dell bring back a reasonably priced laptop computer that runs Linux.
Just a week after debuting the IdeaStorm site, the company said Friday night that the Linux-loaded desktops and laptops will be the first user-generated suggestions that it will follow.
"It's exciting to see the IdeaStorm community's interest in open-source solutions like Linux and OpenOffice," the company said in a post on the Web site. "Your feedback has been all about flexibility and we have seen a consistent request to provide platforms that allow people to install their operating system of choice. We are listening, and as a result, we are working with Novell to certify our corporate client products for Linux, including our OptiPlex desktops, Latitude notebooks and Dell Precision workstations. This is another step towards ensuring that our customers have a good experience with Linux on our systems."
The company said that other Linux distributions were also suggested by users, and that Dell will look into possible certifications with other Linux brands across its product lines.
And while earlier Linux-based machines didn't exactly set the company's sales charts on fire, several IT analysts and Linux luminaries said conditions are better for Dell to try again.
"I think it would be very worthwhile for Dell," said Jon "Maddog" Hall, the executive director of Linux International, an open-source advocacy group in Amherst, N.H. "It's always better when a hardware manufacturer works with software vendors" to integrate their products for users. "That's what makes a good combination. That's why Apple is so good at what they do."
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Microsoft settles embarrassing antitrust suit in Iowa
-- Microsoft Corp. today said it has agreed to settle a class-action lawsuit in Iowa that, during its trial phase, had resulted in the unearthing of numerous internal documents and e-mails that were embarrassing to the company.
Plaintiffs in the case, known as Comes v. Microsoft Corp., had sought as much as $330 million in damages to compensate Microsoft users in Iowa who allegedly were overcharged for software as a result of anticompetitive practices by the company. The terms of the settlement aren't being disclosed pending preliminary approval of the deal by the Iowa state court judge who is overseeing the case. A hearing on the settlement is scheduled for April 20, according to Microsoft and attorneys for the plaintiffs.
The trial, which began in mid-November, was a treasure-trove of cringeworthy comments and messages from Microsoft employees. The documents entered as evidence included a 2004 internal e-mail in which Jim Allchin, then Microsoft's Windows development chief, complained about the progress of Windows Vista and said that he would buy a Macintosh if he wasn't a Microsoft employee.
After the e-mail came to light in December, Allchin said in a blog posting that he had been "purposefully dramatic" in an effort to get the attention of top executives Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer.
The plaintiffs in the Iowa case also publicized the transcript of a 1996 speech by a Microsoft technical evangelist, who referred to independent software developers as "pawns" and compared wooing them to write applications for Windows and the company's other software platforms with persuading someone to have a one-night stand. And they highlighted a 2003 e-mail exchange between Allchin and another Microsoft executive about the possibility of the company introducing a rival to the iPod or seeking a partnership with Apple Inc.
In addition, the lawyers for the plaintiffs last month claimed to have evidence that Microsoft was withholding key application programming interfaces from competing software vendors, which would be a violation of the company's 2002 antitrust settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice.
The seven-year-old case is one of the last of a spate of antitrust suits filed against Microsoft in state courts in the wake of the DOJ's federal suit to be resolved. A lawsuit in Mississippi is the only other one still scheduled to go to trial.
"We are confident that the settlement is in the best interests of all members of the class, and we are deeply grateful for the quality and fairness of the judicial process in Iowa," said Roxanne Conlin, lead counsel for the plaintiffs, as part of a joint statement with Microsoft.
Under the settlement, unspecified compensation will be paid to individuals and businesses in Iowa who bought Windows and specified other Microsoft products, including Word, Excel and Office, between May 1994 and last June. Details on how to file claims will be announced in the spring, according to the joint statement.
Half of any unclaimed proceeds will go to the Iowa Department of Education to fund purchases of computer hardware and software for schools in the state. "One of the best aspects of resolving this case is that we can provide much-needed resources to underprivileged schools," said Rich Wallis, Microsoft's associate general counsel. "We're happy to have this matter behind us so we can focus on the future and build the next generation of products and innovations that enrich the lives of people around the world."
Plaintiffs in the case, known as Comes v. Microsoft Corp., had sought as much as $330 million in damages to compensate Microsoft users in Iowa who allegedly were overcharged for software as a result of anticompetitive practices by the company. The terms of the settlement aren't being disclosed pending preliminary approval of the deal by the Iowa state court judge who is overseeing the case. A hearing on the settlement is scheduled for April 20, according to Microsoft and attorneys for the plaintiffs.
The trial, which began in mid-November, was a treasure-trove of cringeworthy comments and messages from Microsoft employees. The documents entered as evidence included a 2004 internal e-mail in which Jim Allchin, then Microsoft's Windows development chief, complained about the progress of Windows Vista and said that he would buy a Macintosh if he wasn't a Microsoft employee.
After the e-mail came to light in December, Allchin said in a blog posting that he had been "purposefully dramatic" in an effort to get the attention of top executives Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer.
The plaintiffs in the Iowa case also publicized the transcript of a 1996 speech by a Microsoft technical evangelist, who referred to independent software developers as "pawns" and compared wooing them to write applications for Windows and the company's other software platforms with persuading someone to have a one-night stand. And they highlighted a 2003 e-mail exchange between Allchin and another Microsoft executive about the possibility of the company introducing a rival to the iPod or seeking a partnership with Apple Inc.
In addition, the lawyers for the plaintiffs last month claimed to have evidence that Microsoft was withholding key application programming interfaces from competing software vendors, which would be a violation of the company's 2002 antitrust settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice.
The seven-year-old case is one of the last of a spate of antitrust suits filed against Microsoft in state courts in the wake of the DOJ's federal suit to be resolved. A lawsuit in Mississippi is the only other one still scheduled to go to trial.
"We are confident that the settlement is in the best interests of all members of the class, and we are deeply grateful for the quality and fairness of the judicial process in Iowa," said Roxanne Conlin, lead counsel for the plaintiffs, as part of a joint statement with Microsoft.
Under the settlement, unspecified compensation will be paid to individuals and businesses in Iowa who bought Windows and specified other Microsoft products, including Word, Excel and Office, between May 1994 and last June. Details on how to file claims will be announced in the spring, according to the joint statement.
Half of any unclaimed proceeds will go to the Iowa Department of Education to fund purchases of computer hardware and software for schools in the state. "One of the best aspects of resolving this case is that we can provide much-needed resources to underprivileged schools," said Rich Wallis, Microsoft's associate general counsel. "We're happy to have this matter behind us so we can focus on the future and build the next generation of products and innovations that enrich the lives of people around the world."
Monday, February 12, 2007
The Future Arrives. . . Finally
The 40th annual Consumer Electronics Show reveals that connectivity is king.
In January, the massive Consumer Electronics Show celebrated its 40th anniversary. The CES bacchanalia in Las Vegas showcased an industry that has inexorably grown with the promise of converging technologies.
However, in 1967 many of the industry players wouldn't have been able to imagine the vast changes the microprocessor and the Internet would bring to entertainment and the world. A 1967 CES exhibit introduced the first solid-state television. Other exhibitors showed off the latest in transistor radios, stereos, and small-screen black-and-white TVs. Although Sony and RCA were present to demonstrate their corporate leadership that year, the founders of Apple and Microsoft were still in elementary school. Indeed, the future of the consumer electronics industry—the microprocessor—would not even be invented for another four years, at a small company called Intel.
So it is not insignificant that the keynote speakers for CES 2007 were Leslie Moonves, CBS television and cable network president, and Michael Dell, chairman of the well-known PC maker. Both men represented the past and future of home entertainment. Television, hot again in a world of iPods and cell phones, has assumed a form as foreign as the Encyclopaedia Britannica is to Wikipedia.
THE YEAR OF HDTV
In 1967, only 16 percent of US households had a color TV; 49 percent owned one by 1972. In 2006, TV took on new life with the deployment of video on iPods, the phenomenal growth of Internet video via sites such as YouTube, and the rapid adoption of digital television. Today, one-third of US households, roughly 35 million, have high-definition digital televisions (HDTVs), according to the Envisioneering Group research firm.
Home Theater magazine recently noted that—according to Port Washington, NY-based research firm NPD Group—falling prices and improved programming availability boosted HDTV sales by 50 percent during the past year. For the year ending 30 September 2006, manufacturers sold more than 2.4 million HDTV sets in the US—three times the number sold two years ago (www.hometheatermag. com/news/120303hdtv).
Three factors drove demand for HDTV:
Rapid adoption of flat-panel TVs showed that consumers were ready to ditch their CRTs.
Satellite and cable providers supplied an increasing amount of HD programming. Watching an NFL football game in HD on a large display proved tempting enough to prompt many affluent consumers to buy Sony's $33,000 70-inch HDTV.
Government policy and corporate ambitions converged.
The third trend proved to be the central influence in the living room's digital transformation.
GOING DIGITAL
Digital TV will widen the available broadcast spectrum to encompass a variety of applications such as mobile digital TV, Mobile WiMax, and enhanced emergency services. It will also provide more bandwidth for governments to license. This has provided a major incentive for the long-term deployment of terrestrial digital TV. Yet, to be effective, countries must make a complete changeover at one time. The Netherlands made the switch first, on 11 December 2006. Many more countries will follow, as the Digital Television Wiki describes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_television).
On 1 February 2006, the US Congress mandated the largest turnover to digital when it set 17 February 2009 as the final deadline for the DTV transition. Most television stations will continue broadcasting both analog and digital programming until that date, at which point all analog broadcasting will stop. Analog TVs receiving over-the-air programming will still work after that date, but only if owners of these sets buy converter boxes to change digital broadcasts into analog format. Converter boxes will be available from consumer electronic products retailers at that time (www.dtv.gov).
Although broadcasters have avoided previous deadlines, this one looks like it will stick. So far, the limited presence of HDTVs and anemic demand for digital content has provided the excuse to extend the deadlines. But now broadcasters eye digital television as a potential life preserver for an industry faced with multiple new distribution channels for video that range from DVDs to Apple iPods.
Internet Protocol Television (IPTV)—digital TV delivered over the Internet—has emerged as the major threat to mainstream TV. The net is ubiquitous, so customers need not wait for digital video delivery anymore because 43 million American homes already have broadband Internet connections. Likewise, the success of YouTube, the online free video content provider, takes direct aim at mainstream broadcasters.
Mobile phones also might be a serious alternative to digital television. Verizon Wireless partnered with Qualcomm to begin delivering 30-fps digital television broadcasts to cell phones in March 2007 with Qualcomm's MediaFLO technology. Qualcomm and Verizon expect to launch mobile TV services in approximately half the markets that Verizon's CDMA2000 1xEV-DO-based broadband network already covers, enabling the company to offer real-time mobile TV services of unprecedented quality to its subscribers. Verizon will be the first US wireless service provider to offer MediaFLO when the network becomes commercially available.
According to John Stratton, Verizon's chief marketing officer, MediaFLO USA's network will provide compelling real-time multimedia services to wireless customers, including those who subscribe to the V CAST broadband multimedia service. It's going to be lonely living in the analog world.
CREATING A DIGITAL FAMILY
For consumer electronics companies like Sony and Matsushita, this transition to digital television offers both a boon and a curse. Formerly moribund product lines like TVs have become high-growth items again, but in a friction-free economy they eventually become commodities. For example, last year, Matsushita stopped producing analog TVs—at the time 30 percent of the company's total TV business—to concentrate on digital TVs.
Electronics and media giant Sony's strategy exemplifies the risks companies must take to survive in a world where the old Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times" thrives. The company's approach to digital TV has been driven by a dual focus as both content producer and technology provider. Maintaining leadership in entertainment and consumer electronics has meant focusing and synchronizing efforts across a plethora of product lines toward this new digital convergence.Sony's entertainment division produces movies and TV shows as well as music. Sony took in $3.34 billion last year for its theatrical movie business with hits such as Casino Royale. Yet it's the long tail of Sony's 3,500-title movie and television library that makes it a content and distribution company. And here Sony depends on DVDs to be a cash cow. For example, its film The Da Vinci Code has already made $133.7 million in DVD sales.
Unlike content and distribution competitors Walt Disney and Fox, Sony also makes the production and delivery systems. A leader in digital production equipment such as HD cameras, it has begun deploying digital cinema in theaters.
Sony also makes HDTVs and the Blu-Ray high-definition DVD drive. Despite the competition with Toshiba and Microsoft over HD-DVD formats, Sony is pursuing an approach similar to the tactic that worked for its PlayStation 2 game console when it added a DVD player to justify the PS2's $300 initial cost. But the PS2's success also fueled DVD sales, which benefited Sony's content product lines.
History repeated itself this past November with the PS3's inclusion of a Blu-Ray drive. Although at $600 the PS3 is the most expensive of the new consoles, costing twice as much as the Nintendo Wii, the entire game console is only half the cost of a stand-alone Blu-Ray player. With sales of about 750,000 PS3s over the holidays, Sony has thus given its Blu-Ray format an initial market boost.
Moreover, Sony is the only console maker that supports the High-Definition Multimedia Interface (HDMI) for HDTV digital connections. The PS3 also has a Gigabit Ethernet port for broadband access and, in the 60-GB hard drive version, IEEE 802.11b/g Wi-Fi connectivity, multiple flash memory card readers (SD, CompactFlash, memory stick), and Bluetooth.
THE MISSING LINK
On the surface, the PS3 offers perhaps the ultimate digital convergence device for games and HD video to connect to Sony Bravia HDTVs. But it still lacks an HDTV tuner or cable interface like the PS2. And despite the PS2's position as the all-time leader in console sales, Sony has sold only 35.8 million sets over the past six years (http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14737).
Compare this with the annual sales of the most ignored home entertainment device—the lowly set-top box. Analysts expect sales of digital set-top boxes to exceed 70 million in 2007. The dominant players in this market are Motorola and Cisco, which Comcast, the number-one cable company uses. Both companies are networking powerhouses, and their presence in the set-top-box market extends their presence into the home network business (www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=17&artnum=3&issue=20061215). This market may open up to the Sony PS3 and other media centers announced at CES with the FCC ruling that by July 1 set-top boxes can no longer be tied to a specific cable provider through security features.
All of which makes Bill Gates pronouncement at CES 2007 that "Delivering on connected experiences requires more than just great hardware" particularly insightful. The Microsoft chairman went on to explain that "where people are being productive, doing new creative things, where they're sharing with each other, where they're mobile, where they're just playing games, that is the key element that's missing, and something that we've all got to deliver on to take full advantage of that hardware..." ( www.microsoft.com/presspass/exec/billg/speeches/2007/01-07ces.mspx).
Perhaps that's why Apple finally introduced the iPhone. With 100 million regular iPods sold, it was Apple's turn to become connected, and the company now hopes to sell 10 million iPhones by 2008.Just as cell phones will soon deliver TV programming and analog TVs will disappear, the PS3 represents another mutation in the evolution of entertainment: game consoles transformed into media centers. Whatever form they might take in 2009, these entertainment systems will be in a world strangely different from 1967, when consoles, the Internet, Wi-Fi, smart cards, DVDs, digital video recorders, MP3 players, and microprocessors had yet to be invented.
In January, the massive Consumer Electronics Show celebrated its 40th anniversary. The CES bacchanalia in Las Vegas showcased an industry that has inexorably grown with the promise of converging technologies.
However, in 1967 many of the industry players wouldn't have been able to imagine the vast changes the microprocessor and the Internet would bring to entertainment and the world. A 1967 CES exhibit introduced the first solid-state television. Other exhibitors showed off the latest in transistor radios, stereos, and small-screen black-and-white TVs. Although Sony and RCA were present to demonstrate their corporate leadership that year, the founders of Apple and Microsoft were still in elementary school. Indeed, the future of the consumer electronics industry—the microprocessor—would not even be invented for another four years, at a small company called Intel.
So it is not insignificant that the keynote speakers for CES 2007 were Leslie Moonves, CBS television and cable network president, and Michael Dell, chairman of the well-known PC maker. Both men represented the past and future of home entertainment. Television, hot again in a world of iPods and cell phones, has assumed a form as foreign as the Encyclopaedia Britannica is to Wikipedia.
THE YEAR OF HDTV
In 1967, only 16 percent of US households had a color TV; 49 percent owned one by 1972. In 2006, TV took on new life with the deployment of video on iPods, the phenomenal growth of Internet video via sites such as YouTube, and the rapid adoption of digital television. Today, one-third of US households, roughly 35 million, have high-definition digital televisions (HDTVs), according to the Envisioneering Group research firm.
Home Theater magazine recently noted that—according to Port Washington, NY-based research firm NPD Group—falling prices and improved programming availability boosted HDTV sales by 50 percent during the past year. For the year ending 30 September 2006, manufacturers sold more than 2.4 million HDTV sets in the US—three times the number sold two years ago (www.hometheatermag. com/news/120303hdtv).
Three factors drove demand for HDTV:
Rapid adoption of flat-panel TVs showed that consumers were ready to ditch their CRTs.
Satellite and cable providers supplied an increasing amount of HD programming. Watching an NFL football game in HD on a large display proved tempting enough to prompt many affluent consumers to buy Sony's $33,000 70-inch HDTV.
Government policy and corporate ambitions converged.
The third trend proved to be the central influence in the living room's digital transformation.
GOING DIGITAL
Digital TV will widen the available broadcast spectrum to encompass a variety of applications such as mobile digital TV, Mobile WiMax, and enhanced emergency services. It will also provide more bandwidth for governments to license. This has provided a major incentive for the long-term deployment of terrestrial digital TV. Yet, to be effective, countries must make a complete changeover at one time. The Netherlands made the switch first, on 11 December 2006. Many more countries will follow, as the Digital Television Wiki describes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_television).
On 1 February 2006, the US Congress mandated the largest turnover to digital when it set 17 February 2009 as the final deadline for the DTV transition. Most television stations will continue broadcasting both analog and digital programming until that date, at which point all analog broadcasting will stop. Analog TVs receiving over-the-air programming will still work after that date, but only if owners of these sets buy converter boxes to change digital broadcasts into analog format. Converter boxes will be available from consumer electronic products retailers at that time (www.dtv.gov).
Although broadcasters have avoided previous deadlines, this one looks like it will stick. So far, the limited presence of HDTVs and anemic demand for digital content has provided the excuse to extend the deadlines. But now broadcasters eye digital television as a potential life preserver for an industry faced with multiple new distribution channels for video that range from DVDs to Apple iPods.
Internet Protocol Television (IPTV)—digital TV delivered over the Internet—has emerged as the major threat to mainstream TV. The net is ubiquitous, so customers need not wait for digital video delivery anymore because 43 million American homes already have broadband Internet connections. Likewise, the success of YouTube, the online free video content provider, takes direct aim at mainstream broadcasters.
Mobile phones also might be a serious alternative to digital television. Verizon Wireless partnered with Qualcomm to begin delivering 30-fps digital television broadcasts to cell phones in March 2007 with Qualcomm's MediaFLO technology. Qualcomm and Verizon expect to launch mobile TV services in approximately half the markets that Verizon's CDMA2000 1xEV-DO-based broadband network already covers, enabling the company to offer real-time mobile TV services of unprecedented quality to its subscribers. Verizon will be the first US wireless service provider to offer MediaFLO when the network becomes commercially available.
According to John Stratton, Verizon's chief marketing officer, MediaFLO USA's network will provide compelling real-time multimedia services to wireless customers, including those who subscribe to the V CAST broadband multimedia service. It's going to be lonely living in the analog world.
CREATING A DIGITAL FAMILY
For consumer electronics companies like Sony and Matsushita, this transition to digital television offers both a boon and a curse. Formerly moribund product lines like TVs have become high-growth items again, but in a friction-free economy they eventually become commodities. For example, last year, Matsushita stopped producing analog TVs—at the time 30 percent of the company's total TV business—to concentrate on digital TVs.
Electronics and media giant Sony's strategy exemplifies the risks companies must take to survive in a world where the old Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times" thrives. The company's approach to digital TV has been driven by a dual focus as both content producer and technology provider. Maintaining leadership in entertainment and consumer electronics has meant focusing and synchronizing efforts across a plethora of product lines toward this new digital convergence.Sony's entertainment division produces movies and TV shows as well as music. Sony took in $3.34 billion last year for its theatrical movie business with hits such as Casino Royale. Yet it's the long tail of Sony's 3,500-title movie and television library that makes it a content and distribution company. And here Sony depends on DVDs to be a cash cow. For example, its film The Da Vinci Code has already made $133.7 million in DVD sales.
Unlike content and distribution competitors Walt Disney and Fox, Sony also makes the production and delivery systems. A leader in digital production equipment such as HD cameras, it has begun deploying digital cinema in theaters.
Sony also makes HDTVs and the Blu-Ray high-definition DVD drive. Despite the competition with Toshiba and Microsoft over HD-DVD formats, Sony is pursuing an approach similar to the tactic that worked for its PlayStation 2 game console when it added a DVD player to justify the PS2's $300 initial cost. But the PS2's success also fueled DVD sales, which benefited Sony's content product lines.
History repeated itself this past November with the PS3's inclusion of a Blu-Ray drive. Although at $600 the PS3 is the most expensive of the new consoles, costing twice as much as the Nintendo Wii, the entire game console is only half the cost of a stand-alone Blu-Ray player. With sales of about 750,000 PS3s over the holidays, Sony has thus given its Blu-Ray format an initial market boost.
Moreover, Sony is the only console maker that supports the High-Definition Multimedia Interface (HDMI) for HDTV digital connections. The PS3 also has a Gigabit Ethernet port for broadband access and, in the 60-GB hard drive version, IEEE 802.11b/g Wi-Fi connectivity, multiple flash memory card readers (SD, CompactFlash, memory stick), and Bluetooth.
THE MISSING LINK
On the surface, the PS3 offers perhaps the ultimate digital convergence device for games and HD video to connect to Sony Bravia HDTVs. But it still lacks an HDTV tuner or cable interface like the PS2. And despite the PS2's position as the all-time leader in console sales, Sony has sold only 35.8 million sets over the past six years (http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14737).
Compare this with the annual sales of the most ignored home entertainment device—the lowly set-top box. Analysts expect sales of digital set-top boxes to exceed 70 million in 2007. The dominant players in this market are Motorola and Cisco, which Comcast, the number-one cable company uses. Both companies are networking powerhouses, and their presence in the set-top-box market extends their presence into the home network business (www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=17&artnum=3&issue=20061215). This market may open up to the Sony PS3 and other media centers announced at CES with the FCC ruling that by July 1 set-top boxes can no longer be tied to a specific cable provider through security features.
All of which makes Bill Gates pronouncement at CES 2007 that "Delivering on connected experiences requires more than just great hardware" particularly insightful. The Microsoft chairman went on to explain that "where people are being productive, doing new creative things, where they're sharing with each other, where they're mobile, where they're just playing games, that is the key element that's missing, and something that we've all got to deliver on to take full advantage of that hardware..." ( www.microsoft.com/presspass/exec/billg/speeches/2007/01-07ces.mspx).
Perhaps that's why Apple finally introduced the iPhone. With 100 million regular iPods sold, it was Apple's turn to become connected, and the company now hopes to sell 10 million iPhones by 2008.Just as cell phones will soon deliver TV programming and analog TVs will disappear, the PS3 represents another mutation in the evolution of entertainment: game consoles transformed into media centers. Whatever form they might take in 2009, these entertainment systems will be in a world strangely different from 1967, when consoles, the Internet, Wi-Fi, smart cards, DVDs, digital video recorders, MP3 players, and microprocessors had yet to be invented.
Tuesday, February 6, 2007
New high-end, mid-range, value Core 2 Duos
New high-end, mid-range, value Core 2 Duos
In conjunction with the release of the Centrino Pro platform in Q2 2007, Intel will release a number of new Core 2 Duo mobile processors with the faster 800MHz front-side bus speed. The cream of this new crop will be the T7700, a 2.4GHz dual-core CPU with a 4MB shared L2 cache. Also scheduled for release in the same general time frame are the T7500 (2.2GHz), the T7300 (2.0GHz) and the T7000 (1.8GHz), which will also run on an 800MHz FSB and sport 4MB of shared L2 cache.
Thankfully, Intel is not neglecting the old Centrino Duo platform in the meantime. High-end mobile processors planned for Q1 2007 include the top-line T7600 (2.33GHz), T7400 (2.16GHz) and T7200 (2.0GHz). All four CPUs will run on the Centrino Duo platform's slower 667MHz front-side bus, and each will feature 4MB of shared L2 cache.
At the midrange, Intel will ship three mobile processors in Q1. The T5600 and T5500 will run at 1.83GHz and 1.66GHz, respectively, on a 667MHz front-side bus with 2MB of shared L2 cache. In Q2, Intel will ship the T5500P, an identical version of the T5500, but built on the Centrino Pro platform.
At the budget level, Intel will release several new mobile CPUs (currently code-named "Stealey") based on the Core architecture. Q1 should see the release of the Celeron M 520, a single-core 1.6GHz CPU with a 512KB cache that operates on a 533MHz front-side bus. Q2 should bring the Celeron M 530. Also single-core, this processor will run at 1.73GHz and will also feature a 512KB cache and a 533MHz bus speed.
Finally, a mobile CPU known by the code-name "Gilo" (pronounced GHEE-lo) has raised a considerable amount of intrigue. Nothing is known about Gilo except that it is a 65nm CPU, leading to widespread speculation that this will be Intel's quad-core mobile processor. Intel has refused to confirm this speculation.
Keep an eye out for "Penryn"
At the end of 2006, Intel announced that it was successfully producing prototypes of a new 45nm microprocessor line known by the code-name "Penryn." Intel has also announced that it will begin production of Penryn CPUs in the second half of 2007, leading to widespread speculation that the market will see the release of these new processors at the end of 2007.
Penryn is based on Intel's Core microprocessor architecture but shrinks the CPU die from 65nm to 45nm. Typically, a smaller fabrication process results in increased clock speeds as well as increased thermal efficiencies and decreased power consumption. Intel hopes that by rapidly moving to a 45nm fabrication process, the company will be able to secure a considerable competitive advantage. Rival chipmaker AMD won't be able to produce 45nm parts until mid-2008 at the earliest.
A big factor in Intel's ability to rapidly move into 45nm production is the chip maker's recent announcement regarding the use of "high-k" metal technology to build more efficient transistors for its CPUs. (See "IBM, Intel separately reveal advances in microchips" for the full story.) These new high-k materials should result in increased power and thermal efficiencies across the new Penryn processors.
Much like Intel's Core architecture, Penryn will serve as the primary CPU architecture for all of Intel's processors -- mobile, desktop and server. Intel has released no details at all regarding specific Penryn mobile processors. In fact, it's entirely possible that the mobile market won't see this new architecture until early 2008.
In conjunction with the release of the Centrino Pro platform in Q2 2007, Intel will release a number of new Core 2 Duo mobile processors with the faster 800MHz front-side bus speed. The cream of this new crop will be the T7700, a 2.4GHz dual-core CPU with a 4MB shared L2 cache. Also scheduled for release in the same general time frame are the T7500 (2.2GHz), the T7300 (2.0GHz) and the T7000 (1.8GHz), which will also run on an 800MHz FSB and sport 4MB of shared L2 cache.
Thankfully, Intel is not neglecting the old Centrino Duo platform in the meantime. High-end mobile processors planned for Q1 2007 include the top-line T7600 (2.33GHz), T7400 (2.16GHz) and T7200 (2.0GHz). All four CPUs will run on the Centrino Duo platform's slower 667MHz front-side bus, and each will feature 4MB of shared L2 cache.
At the midrange, Intel will ship three mobile processors in Q1. The T5600 and T5500 will run at 1.83GHz and 1.66GHz, respectively, on a 667MHz front-side bus with 2MB of shared L2 cache. In Q2, Intel will ship the T5500P, an identical version of the T5500, but built on the Centrino Pro platform.
At the budget level, Intel will release several new mobile CPUs (currently code-named "Stealey") based on the Core architecture. Q1 should see the release of the Celeron M 520, a single-core 1.6GHz CPU with a 512KB cache that operates on a 533MHz front-side bus. Q2 should bring the Celeron M 530. Also single-core, this processor will run at 1.73GHz and will also feature a 512KB cache and a 533MHz bus speed.
Finally, a mobile CPU known by the code-name "Gilo" (pronounced GHEE-lo) has raised a considerable amount of intrigue. Nothing is known about Gilo except that it is a 65nm CPU, leading to widespread speculation that this will be Intel's quad-core mobile processor. Intel has refused to confirm this speculation.
Keep an eye out for "Penryn"
At the end of 2006, Intel announced that it was successfully producing prototypes of a new 45nm microprocessor line known by the code-name "Penryn." Intel has also announced that it will begin production of Penryn CPUs in the second half of 2007, leading to widespread speculation that the market will see the release of these new processors at the end of 2007.
Penryn is based on Intel's Core microprocessor architecture but shrinks the CPU die from 65nm to 45nm. Typically, a smaller fabrication process results in increased clock speeds as well as increased thermal efficiencies and decreased power consumption. Intel hopes that by rapidly moving to a 45nm fabrication process, the company will be able to secure a considerable competitive advantage. Rival chipmaker AMD won't be able to produce 45nm parts until mid-2008 at the earliest.
A big factor in Intel's ability to rapidly move into 45nm production is the chip maker's recent announcement regarding the use of "high-k" metal technology to build more efficient transistors for its CPUs. (See "IBM, Intel separately reveal advances in microchips" for the full story.) These new high-k materials should result in increased power and thermal efficiencies across the new Penryn processors.
Much like Intel's Core architecture, Penryn will serve as the primary CPU architecture for all of Intel's processors -- mobile, desktop and server. Intel has released no details at all regarding specific Penryn mobile processors. In fact, it's entirely possible that the mobile market won't see this new architecture until early 2008.
Smaller, faster, cooler, more efficient: The 2007 mobile CPU road map
February 06, 2007 (Computerworld) -- Ask anyone to name their No. 1 laptop grievance and you'll repeatedly hear two words: "battery power." In an era when seemingly everyone is switching from desktops to laptops, the inability to compute for more than four or five straight hours without being plugged in feels outdated.
Thankfully, it appears that market leaders Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) understand this shortcoming and are moving to address it. Both last year and this year, the all-important notion of performance-per-watt has dominated the spotlight. Greater performance-per-watt results in cooler inside temperatures and increased power efficiencies. For laptops, both of these elements are critical, and addressing them usually translates into longer battery life.
Typically, laptop processor speeds have increased at the cost of battery life. However, with last year's release of its mobile Core 2 Duo processors, Intel made great strides in increasing performance while decreasing power consumption. But can the chip giant keep it up?
Considering how important the mobile computing category is to overall profits, it's clear that AMD will have to deliver some substantially better products to make a dent in Intel's dominance. Can AMD deliver?
Keep reading for details -- including a surprising and novel approach to CPU design by AMD.
Editor's Note: Looking for information on desktop, rather than mobile, CPUs? See "Beyond Dual Core: 2007 Desktop CPU Road Map."
Thankfully, it appears that market leaders Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) understand this shortcoming and are moving to address it. Both last year and this year, the all-important notion of performance-per-watt has dominated the spotlight. Greater performance-per-watt results in cooler inside temperatures and increased power efficiencies. For laptops, both of these elements are critical, and addressing them usually translates into longer battery life.
Typically, laptop processor speeds have increased at the cost of battery life. However, with last year's release of its mobile Core 2 Duo processors, Intel made great strides in increasing performance while decreasing power consumption. But can the chip giant keep it up?
Considering how important the mobile computing category is to overall profits, it's clear that AMD will have to deliver some substantially better products to make a dent in Intel's dominance. Can AMD deliver?
Keep reading for details -- including a surprising and novel approach to CPU design by AMD.
Editor's Note: Looking for information on desktop, rather than mobile, CPUs? See "Beyond Dual Core: 2007 Desktop CPU Road Map."
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